Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Hussein vs Sepahan FC — AFC Cup 2018

Al Hussein
Al Hussein
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
9/16/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Hussein46%
×Draw25%
Sepahan FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hussein
1.53
Sepahan FC
1.15

Al Hussein creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Hussein
1.86
Sepahan FC
1.00

allows per match

Al Hussein
1.29
Sepahan FC
1.20

finishing

Al Hussein+0.00on par
Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hussein ↓

Sepahan FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Hussein or draw
71%
Al Hussein or Sepahan FC
75%
Draw or Sepahan FC
54%

Winning margin

Al Hussein wins by 2+
23%
Sepahan FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Hussein 1+ goals
78%
Al Hussein 2+ goals
45%
Al Hussein 3+ goals
20%
Sepahan FC 1+ goals
68%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
32%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Hussein (draw refunded)
62%
Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hussein at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hussein attack 1.86 + Sepahan FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sepahan FC attack 1.00 + Al Hussein defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Hussein scores more
46%
level
25%
Sepahan FC scores more
29%

Al Hussein at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Hussein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Hussein 1–0 Sepahan FC

Al Hussein beat Sepahan FC 1-0 in AFC Cup on September 16, 2025.

The match was played at Amman International Stadium in Amman.