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Al Hussein vs Esteghlal FC — AFC Cup 2018

Al Hussein
Al Husseinadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
2/17/2026AFC CupAFC Cup · Round of 16Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Hussein55%
×Draw20%
Esteghlal FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hussein
2.31
Esteghlal FC
1.52

Al Hussein creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Hussein
1.86
Esteghlal FC
1.75

allows per match

Al Hussein
1.29
Esteghlal FC
2.75

finishing

Al Hussein+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hussein ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Al Hussein or draw
75%
Al Hussein or Esteghlal FC
80%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
45%

Winning margin

Al Hussein wins by 2+
34%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Hussein 1+ goals
90%
Al Hussein 2+ goals
67%
Al Hussein 3+ goals
40%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
78%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
45%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Hussein (draw refunded)
69%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hussein at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hussein attack 1.86 + Esteghlal FC defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Esteghlal FC attack 1.75 + Al Hussein defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Hussein scores more
55%
level
20%
Esteghlal FC scores more
25%

Al Hussein at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Hussein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Hussein 3–2 Esteghlal FC

Al Hussein beat Esteghlal FC 3-2 in AFC Cup on February 17, 2026.

The match was played at Amman International Stadium in Amman.