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Al Hudod vs Naft Al-Wasat — Iraqi League 2020

Al Hudod
Al Hudod
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Al-Wasat
Naft Al-Wasat
5/1/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 25Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Hudod33%
×Draw29%
Naft Al-Wasat38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hudod
1.08
Naft Al-Wasat
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 73 away

creates per match

Al Hudod
1.00
Naft Al-Wasat
0.96

allows per match

Al Hudod
1.40
Naft Al-Wasat
1.16

finishing

Al Hudod+0.00on par
Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hudod ↓

Naft Al-Wasat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Hudod or draw
62%
Al Hudod or Naft Al-Wasat
71%
Draw or Naft Al-Wasat
67%

Winning margin

Al Hudod wins by 2+
13%
Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Hudod 1+ goals
66%
Al Hudod 2+ goals
29%
Al Hudod 3+ goals
10%
Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals
69%
Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals
33%
Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Hudod (draw refunded)
47%
Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hudod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 78 matches

Naft Al-Wasat away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hudod attack 1.00 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.96 + Al Hudod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Hudod scores more
33%
level
29%
Naft Al-Wasat scores more
38%

Naft Al-Wasat at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naft Al-Wasat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hudod vs Naft Al-Wasat

Al Hudod beat Naft Al-Wasat 2-0 in Iraqi League on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.