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Al Hudod vs Naft — Iraqi League 2020

Al Hudod
Al Hudod
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Naft
Naft
4/22/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Hudod31%
×Draw30%
Naft39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hudod
0.98
Naft
1.12

Naft creates 14% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 113 away

creates per match

Al Hudod
1.00
Naft
0.84

allows per match

Al Hudod
1.40
Naft
0.96

finishing

Al Hudod+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hudod ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hudod or draw
61%
Al Hudod or Naft
70%
Draw or Naft
69%

Winning margin

Al Hudod wins by 2+
12%
Naft wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Hudod 1+ goals
62%
Al Hudod 2+ goals
26%
Al Hudod 3+ goals
8%
Naft 1+ goals
67%
Naft 2+ goals
31%
Naft 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Hudod (draw refunded)
45%
Naft (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hudod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 78 matches

Naft away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hudod attack 1.00 + Naft defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Naft attack 0.84 + Al Hudod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hudod scores more
31%
level
30%
Naft scores more
39%

Naft at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hudod vs Naft

Naft beat Al Hudod 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 22, 2024.

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.