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Al Hudod vs Karbala — Iraqi League 2020

Al Hudod
Al Hudod
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karbala
Karbala
11/1/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 6Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al Hudod39%
×Draw28%
Karbala33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hudod
1.21
Karbala
1.10

Al Hudod creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 58 away

creates per match

Al Hudod
1.00
Karbala
0.81

allows per match

Al Hudod
1.40
Karbala
1.41

finishing

Al Hudod+0.00on par
Karbala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hudod ↓

Karbala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Hudod or draw
67%
Al Hudod or Karbala
72%
Draw or Karbala
61%

Winning margin

Al Hudod wins by 2+
17%
Karbala wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Hudod 1+ goals
70%
Al Hudod 2+ goals
34%
Al Hudod 3+ goals
12%
Karbala 1+ goals
67%
Karbala 2+ goals
30%
Karbala 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Hudod (draw refunded)
54%
Karbala (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hudod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 78 matches

Karbala away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hudod attack 1.00 + Karbala defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Karbala attack 0.81 + Al Hudod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hudod scores more
39%
level
28%
Karbala scores more
33%

Al Hudod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Hudod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hudod vs Karbala

Karbala beat Al Hudod 1-0 in Iraqi League on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.