Al Hudod 2–4 Al-Qasim: Result & Stats

Al Hudod

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Al-Qasim

1/3/2025

Iraqi League · Round 12Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Hudod39%

×Draw28%

Al-Qasim33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HudodExpected goals in this matchAl-Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.13

Al Hudod

1.24

Al-Qasim

1.13

Al Hudod creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 109 away

1.00

creates per match

0.85

1.40

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Al Hudod

1.00

Al-Qasim

0.85

allows per match

Al Hudod

1.40

Al-Qasim

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hudod+0.00on par

Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hudod ↓

Al-Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Hudod or draw

67%

Al Hudod or Al-Qasim

72%

Draw or Al-Qasim

61%

Winning margin

Al Hudod wins by 2+

17%

Al-Qasim wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Hudod 1+ goals

71%

Al Hudod 2+ goals

35%

Al Hudod 3+ goals

13%

Al-Qasim 1+ goals

68%

Al-Qasim 2+ goals

31%

Al-Qasim 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Hudod (draw refunded)

54%

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hudod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 78 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hudod attack 1.00 + Al-Qasim defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al-Qasim attack 0.85 + Al Hudod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hudod scores more

39%

level

28%

Al-Qasim scores more

33%

Al Hudod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Hudod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff