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Al-Horgelah vs Al Wahda — Premier League 2019

Al-Horgelah
Al-Horgelah
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Wahda
Al Wahda
3/4/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Al Jalaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al-Horgelah21%
×Draw29%
Al Wahda50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Horgelah
0.75
Al Wahda
1.31

Al Wahda creates 75% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 82 away

creates per match

Al-Horgelah
0.62
Al Wahda
1.21

allows per match

Al-Horgelah
1.42
Al Wahda
0.88

finishing

Al-Horgelah+0.00on par
Al Wahda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Horgelah ↓

Al Wahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Horgelah or draw
50%
Al-Horgelah or Al Wahda
71%
Draw or Al Wahda
79%

Winning margin

Al-Horgelah wins by 2+
6%
Al Wahda wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al-Horgelah 1+ goals
53%
Al-Horgelah 2+ goals
17%
Al-Horgelah 3+ goals
4%
Al Wahda 1+ goals
73%
Al Wahda 2+ goals
38%
Al Wahda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Horgelah (draw refunded)
30%
Al Wahda (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Horgelah at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Al Wahda away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Horgelah attack 0.62 + Al Wahda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.75

Al Wahda attack 1.21 + Al-Horgelah defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Horgelah scores more
21%
level
29%
Al Wahda scores more
50%

Al Wahda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Wahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Horgelah vs Al Wahda

Al Wahda beat Al-Horgelah 1-0 in Premier League on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Al Jalaa Stadium in Damascus.