Al Hilal 1–0 Ngom Ajdabiya: Result & Stats

Al Hilal

FT

1 – 0

Ngom Ajdabiya

5/8/2021

Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Hilal61%

×Draw24%

Ngom Ajdabiya15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HilalExpected goals in this matchNgom Ajdabiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.69

Al Hilal

1.68

Ngom Ajdabiya

0.69

Al Hilal creates 143% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 11 away

1.53

creates per match

0.55

0.83

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Al Hilal

1.53

Ngom Ajdabiya

0.55

allows per match

Al Hilal

0.83

Ngom Ajdabiya

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par

Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Ngom Ajdabiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw

85%

Al Hilal or Ngom Ajdabiya

76%

Draw or Ngom Ajdabiya

39%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+

34%

Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals

81%

Al Hilal 2+ goals

50%

Al Hilal 3+ goals

24%

Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals

50%

Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals

15%

Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)

80%

Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Ngom Ajdabiya away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Hilal scores more

61%

level

24%

Ngom Ajdabiya scores more

15%

Al Hilal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff