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Al Hilal vs Khaleej Sart — Premier League 2019

Al Hilal
Al Hilal
FT
1 – 0
Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
2/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Hilal53%
×Draw25%
Khaleej Sart21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal
1.56
Khaleej Sart
0.89

Al Hilal creates 75% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

creates per match

Al Hilal
1.53
Khaleej Sart
0.95

allows per match

Al Hilal
0.83
Khaleej Sart
1.58

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par
Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Khaleej Sart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw
79%
Al Hilal or Khaleej Sart
75%
Draw or Khaleej Sart
47%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+
28%
Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals
79%
Al Hilal 2+ goals
46%
Al Hilal 3+ goals
21%
Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
59%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
22%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)
71%
Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Khaleej Sart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khaleej Sart attack 0.95 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Hilal scores more
53%
level
25%
Khaleej Sart scores more
21%

Al Hilal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Hilal 1–0 Khaleej Sart

Al Hilal beat Khaleej Sart 1-0 in Premier League on February 10, 2021.