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Al Hilal vs Al-Suqoor — Premier League 2019

Al Hilal
Al Hilal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Suqoor
Al-Suqoor
2/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Hilal60%
×Draw24%
Al-Suqoor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal
1.72
Al-Suqoor
0.78

Al Hilal creates 121% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 35 away

creates per match

Al Hilal
1.53
Al-Suqoor
0.74

allows per match

Al Hilal
0.83
Al-Suqoor
1.91

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par
Al-Suqoor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Al-Suqoor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw
83%
Al Hilal or Al-Suqoor
76%
Draw or Al-Suqoor
40%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+
34%
Al-Suqoor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals
82%
Al Hilal 2+ goals
51%
Al Hilal 3+ goals
25%
Al-Suqoor 1+ goals
54%
Al-Suqoor 2+ goals
18%
Al-Suqoor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)
78%
Al-Suqoor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Al-Suqoor away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Al-Suqoor defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.72

Al-Suqoor attack 0.74 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Hilal scores more
60%
level
24%
Al-Suqoor scores more
17%

Al Hilal at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Hilal 2–1 Al-Suqoor

Al Hilal beat Al-Suqoor 2-1 in Premier League on February 7, 2024.