Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Hilal vs Al Morooj — Premier League 2019

Al Hilal
Al Hilal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Morooj
Al Morooj
3/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Hilal58%
×Draw24%
Al Morooj18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal
1.69
Al Morooj
0.82

Al Hilal creates 106% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 26 away

creates per match

Al Hilal
1.53
Al Morooj
0.81

allows per match

Al Hilal
0.83
Al Morooj
1.85

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par
Al Morooj+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Al Morooj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw
82%
Al Hilal or Al Morooj
76%
Draw or Al Morooj
42%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+
32%
Al Morooj wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals
82%
Al Hilal 2+ goals
50%
Al Hilal 3+ goals
24%
Al Morooj 1+ goals
56%
Al Morooj 2+ goals
20%
Al Morooj 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)
76%
Al Morooj (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Al Morooj away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Al Morooj defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al Morooj attack 0.81 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Hilal scores more
58%
level
24%
Al Morooj scores more
18%

Al Hilal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Hilal 3–2 Al Morooj

Al Hilal beat Al Morooj 3-2 in Premier League on March 10, 2025.