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Al Hilal vs Al-Ittihad — Premier League 2019

Al Hilal
Al Hilal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Ittihad
Al-Ittihad
7/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al Hilal38%
×Draw30%
Al-Ittihad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal
1.13
Al-Ittihad
1.00

Al Hilal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 71 away

creates per match

Al Hilal
1.53
Al-Ittihad
1.18

allows per match

Al Hilal
0.83
Al-Ittihad
0.73

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Al-Ittihad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw
68%
Al Hilal or Al-Ittihad
70%
Draw or Al-Ittihad
62%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+
16%
Al-Ittihad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals
68%
Al Hilal 2+ goals
31%
Al Hilal 3+ goals
11%
Al-Ittihad 1+ goals
63%
Al-Ittihad 2+ goals
26%
Al-Ittihad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)
55%
Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Al-Ittihad away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al-Ittihad attack 1.18 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Hilal scores more
38%
level
30%
Al-Ittihad scores more
32%

Al Hilal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal vs Al-Ittihad

Al Hilal and Al-Ittihad drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 1, 2023.