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Al Hilal vs Al-Andalus — Premier League 2019

Al Hilal
Al Hilal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al-Andalus
Al-Andalus
2/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Hilal66%
×Draw21%
Al-Andalus13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal
1.87
Al-Andalus
0.67

Al Hilal creates 179% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Hilal
1.53
Al-Andalus
0.50

allows per match

Al Hilal
0.83
Al-Andalus
2.21

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par
Al-Andalus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Al-Andalus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw
87%
Al Hilal or Al-Andalus
79%
Draw or Al-Andalus
34%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+
40%
Al-Andalus wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals
85%
Al Hilal 2+ goals
56%
Al Hilal 3+ goals
29%
Al-Andalus 1+ goals
49%
Al-Andalus 2+ goals
15%
Al-Andalus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)
84%
Al-Andalus (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Al-Andalus away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Al-Andalus defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.87

Al-Andalus attack 0.50 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al Hilal scores more
66%
level
21%
Al-Andalus scores more
13%

Al Hilal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal vs Al-Andalus

Al Hilal beat Al-Andalus 3-1 in Premier League on February 22, 2025.