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Al Hilal vs Al-Akhdar — Premier League 2019

Al Hilal
Al Hilal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Akhdar
Al-Akhdar
5/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Al Hilal38%
×Draw27%
Al-Akhdar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal
1.27
Al-Akhdar
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Hilal
1.53
Al-Akhdar
1.55

allows per match

Al Hilal
0.83
Al-Akhdar
1.00

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par
Al-Akhdar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Al-Akhdar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw
66%
Al Hilal or Al-Akhdar
73%
Draw or Al-Akhdar
62%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+
17%
Al-Akhdar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals
72%
Al Hilal 2+ goals
36%
Al Hilal 3+ goals
14%
Al-Akhdar 1+ goals
70%
Al-Akhdar 2+ goals
33%
Al-Akhdar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)
53%
Al-Akhdar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Al-Akhdar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Al-Akhdar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al-Akhdar attack 1.55 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Hilal scores more
38%
level
27%
Al-Akhdar scores more
34%

Al Hilal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Hilal 1–1 Al-Akhdar

Al Hilal and Al-Akhdar drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 7, 2025.