Al Hilal 0–0 Abu Salim: Result & Stats

Al Hilal

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Abu Salim

6/25/2023

Premier League · Championship Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Hilal48%

×Draw29%

Abu Salim24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HilalExpected goals in this matchAbu Salim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.82

Al Hilal

1.30

Abu Salim

0.82

Al Hilal creates 59% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 61 away

1.53

creates per match

0.82

0.83

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Al Hilal

1.53

Abu Salim

0.82

allows per match

Al Hilal

0.83

Abu Salim

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal+0.00on par

Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal ↓

Abu Salim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal or draw

76%

Al Hilal or Abu Salim

71%

Draw or Abu Salim

52%

Winning margin

Al Hilal wins by 2+

22%

Abu Salim wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Hilal 1+ goals

73%

Al Hilal 2+ goals

37%

Al Hilal 3+ goals

14%

Abu Salim 1+ goals

56%

Abu Salim 2+ goals

20%

Abu Salim 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal (draw refunded)

67%

Abu Salim (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal attack 1.53 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Al Hilal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Hilal scores more

48%

level

29%

Abu Salim scores more

24%

Al Hilal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff