Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sepahan FC

A. Mitrović 90+6'

Rúben Neves 82'

Salem Al Dawsari 76'

F. Ahmadzadeh 54'

2/22/2024

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Kingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC61%

×Draw20%

Sepahan FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.21

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.25

Sepahan FC

1.21

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 11 away

2.23

creates per match

1.64

0.78

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.23

Sepahan FC

1.64

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.78

Sepahan FC

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

80%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Sepahan FC

80%

Draw or Sepahan FC

39%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

38%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

89%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

65%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

39%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

70%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

34%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

75%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.23 + Sepahan FC defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sepahan FC attack 1.64 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

61%

level

20%

Sepahan FC scores more

20%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

Saud Abdulhamid

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · D

8.2

Match Events

54'

F. Ahmadzadeh↳ R. Rezaeian

67'

Nasser Al Dawsari← Yasir Al Shahrani

67'

Salman Al Faraj← Mohamed Kanno

70'

Siavash YazdaniCard upgrade

71'

Siavash Yazdani

76'

Salem Al Dawsari↳ Ali Al Bulayhi

82'

Rúben Neves

85'

R. Asadi← A. Aarabi

85'

I. Abass← F. Ahmadzadeh

89'

Abdullah Al Hamddan← Michael

90+8'

K. Rezaei← S. Moghanlou

90+7'

M. Hosseinnezhad← R. Rezaeian

90+6'

A. Mitrović↳ Saud Abdulhamid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-HilalSepahan

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots13

4Corners1

7Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots13

10On Target3

6Off Target8

2Blocked2

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

68%Possession32%

565Total Passes255

488Accurate Passes172

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls15

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3