Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4–0 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pakhtakor

3/11/2025

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Kingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC61%

×Draw23%

Pakhtakor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.80

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.80

Pakhtakor

0.80

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 125% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

2.24

creates per match

0.78

0.82

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.24

Pakhtakor

0.78

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.82

Pakhtakor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

84%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Pakhtakor

77%

Draw or Pakhtakor

39%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

35%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

83%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

54%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

27%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

55%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

19%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

79%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.24 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

61%

level

23%

Pakhtakor scores more

16%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff