Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6–0 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mumbai City

10/23/2023

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC82%

×Draw12%

Mumbai City6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.56

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.70

Mumbai City

0.56

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 382% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 6 away

2.23

creates per match

0.33

0.78

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.23

Mumbai City

0.33

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.78

Mumbai City

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

94%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Mumbai City

88%

Draw or Mumbai City

18%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

61%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

93%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

75%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

50%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

43%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

11%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

94%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.23 + Mumbai City defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.70

Mumbai City attack 0.33 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

82%

level

12%

Mumbai City scores more

6%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff