Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7–0 Gwangju FC: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gwangju FC

4/25/2025

AFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsAl Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC75%

×Draw16%

Gwangju FC9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchGwangju FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.66

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.37

Gwangju FC

0.66

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 259% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 6 away

2.24

creates per match

0.50

0.82

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.24

Gwangju FC

0.50

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.82

Gwangju FC

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Gwangju FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

91%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Gwangju FC

84%

Draw or Gwangju FC

25%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

52%

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

91%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

68%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

42%

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

48%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

14%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

90%

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.24 + Gwangju FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.37

Gwangju FC attack 0.50 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

75%

level

16%

Gwangju FC scores more

9%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7–0 Gwangju FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Gwangju FC 7-0 in AFC Champions League on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Jeddah.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Gwangju FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

AFC Champions League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7–0 Gwangju FC