Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0–1 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Esteghlal FC

V. Ghafouri 36'

4/16/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Al-Kuwait Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC57%

×Draw22%

Esteghlal FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.06

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.89

Esteghlal FC

1.06

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 20 away

2.23

creates per match

1.35

0.78

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.23

Esteghlal FC

1.35

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.78

Esteghlal FC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

79%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Esteghlal FC

78%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

43%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

33%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

85%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

56%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

29%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

65%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

29%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

73%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.23 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.89

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

57%

level

22%

Esteghlal FC scores more

21%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Abdullah Al Zoari

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

M. Zakipour← F. Bagheri

33'

Abdulmalek Al-Khaibri

36'

V. Ghafouri

59'

Nasser Al Dawsari← Abdulmalek Al Khaibri

70'

Mujahid Almania← A. Bencharki

86'

Muhannad Fallatah

87'

A. Ghorbani← F. Esmaeili

89'

B. Najdenov← M. Thiam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-HilalEsteghlal

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots6

7Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots6

2On Target2

13Off Target3

1Blocked1

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

494Total Passes434

410Accurate Passes351

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2