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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee — Pro League 2018

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Taee
Al Taee
4/10/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 23Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC67%
×Draw19%
Al Taee14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.16
Al Taee
0.85

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 154% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 47 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.45
Al Taee
0.83

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.88
Al Taee
1.87

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Al Taee+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al Taee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
86%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Taee
81%
Draw or Al Taee
33%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
43%
Al Taee wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
88%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
63%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
36%
Al Taee 1+ goals
57%
Al Taee 2+ goals
21%
Al Taee 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
83%
Al Taee (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Al Taee away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Al Taee defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.16

Al Taee attack 0.83 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
67%
level
19%
Al Taee scores more
14%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–2 Al Taee

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee drew 2-2 in Pro League on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.