Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shorta — AFC Champions League Elite 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Al-Hilal Saudi FC85%
Al Shorta5%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 433% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓
Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
Al Shorta away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 3.00 + Al Shorta defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.93
Al Shorta attack 0.43 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 85%?"
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 85% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
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Vissel Kobe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Buriram United
Melbourne City
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FC Seoul
Gangwon FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Chengdu Better City
Shanghai Shenhua
SHANGHAI SIPGIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al Shorta on Tuesday, 1 October 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the AFC Champions League Elite 2025/2026 season.
AFC Champions League Elite: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5–0 Al Shorta
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Shorta 5-0 in AFC Champions League Elite on October 1, 2024.
Goals: Marcos Leonardo (11'), A. Mitrović (15'), Salem Al Dawsari (47'), Nasser Al Dawsari (73'), Mohamed Kanno (90+5').
Al-Hilal Saudi FC controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 8.
The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.