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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood — Pro League 2021

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
Marcos Leonardo 79', 45'
T. Hernandez 45'
K. Narey 14'
9/25/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 4Kingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC67%
×Draw19%
Al Okhdood13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.10
Al Okhdood
0.79

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 166% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.56
Al Okhdood
0.76

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.83
Al Okhdood
1.65

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al Okhdood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
87%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Okhdood
81%
Draw or Al Okhdood
33%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
43%
Al Okhdood wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
88%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
62%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
35%
Al Okhdood 1+ goals
55%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
19%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
84%
Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.56 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.10

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
67%
level
19%
Al Okhdood scores more
13%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
T. HernandezAl-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hilal Saudi FC · D
8.2

Match Events

14'
K. Narey↳ G. Gul
25'
Kalidou Koulibaly
45+6'
Blaž Kramer
45'
Marcos Leonardo
45'
T. Hernandez↳ Kaio Cesar
60'
Kalidou KoulibalyGoal cancelled
61'
M. Al Jahif← K. Narey
72'
Gökhan Gül
72'
A. Al Hatila← C. Bassogog
79'
Marcos Leonardo↳ K. Koulibaly
83'
Naif Assery
83'
M. Al Qahtani← Kaio Cesar
87'
G. Hawsawi← N. Asiri
87'
S. Al Harthi←
87'
S. Salem← M. Abu Abd
90+3'
Ghassan Hawsawi
90+3'
Y. Akcicek← K. Koulibaly
90'
M. Al Harbi← H. Al Yami
90'
M. Kanno← N. Al Dawsari
90'
A. Al Hamdan← Marcos Leonardo

Possession

71%Al-Hilal

Shots

21Al-Hilal

Pass accuracy

57%Al-Hilal

Statistics

Al-HilalAl
Overview
71%Possession29%
21Total Shots4
9Corners3
10Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots4
9On Target2
6Off Target1
6Blocked1
16Inside Box2
5Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
522Total Passes220
475Accurate Passes154
91%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 3-1 in Pro League on September 25, 2025.

Goals: K. Narey (14'), Marcos Leonardo (45', 79'), T. Hernandez (45').

Al-Hilal Saudi FC controlled possession (71%) and registered 21 shots to 4.

The match was played at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh.