Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Gharafa
Al-Gharafa
12/3/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 6Kingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC74%
×Draw15%
Al-Gharafa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.73
Al-Gharafa
0.98

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 179% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.24
Al-Gharafa
1.14

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.82
Al-Gharafa
3.21

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Al-Gharafa+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al-Gharafa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
89%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Gharafa
85%
Draw or Al-Gharafa
26%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
52%
Al-Gharafa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
93%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
75%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
50%
Al-Gharafa 1+ goals
62%
Al-Gharafa 2+ goals
26%
Al-Gharafa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
87%
Al-Gharafa (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Al-Gharafa away — creates 1.14, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.24 + Al-Gharafa defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.73

Al-Gharafa attack 1.14 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
74%
level
15%
Al-Gharafa scores more
11%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–0 Al-Gharafa

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Gharafa 3-0 in AFC Champions League on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh.