Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–1 Al Ain: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Ain

Salem Al Dawsari 51'

Rúben Neves 4' (pen)

Erik 12'

4/23/2024

AFC Champions League · Semi-finalsKingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC60%

×Draw21%

Al Ain18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchAl Ain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.99

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.99

Al Ain

0.99

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 101% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 24 away

2.23

creates per match

1.21

0.78

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.23

Al Ain

1.21

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.78

Al Ain

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al Ain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

82%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Ain

79%

Draw or Al Ain

40%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

36%

Al Ain wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

86%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

59%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

32%

Al Ain 1+ goals

63%

Al Ain 2+ goals

26%

Al Ain 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

77%

Al Ain (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Al Ain away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.23 + Al Ain defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.99

Al Ain attack 1.21 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

60%

level

21%

Al Ain scores more

18%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Rúben Neves

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · M

8.0

Match Events

2'

MichaelPenalty confirmed

3'

Kouame Autonne Kouadio

4'

Rúben NevesPenalty

12'

Erik↳ Yahia Nader

18'

Saeed Jumaa← Erik

19'

Bandar Al Ahbabi

38'

Salem Al-Dawsari

42'

Soufiane RahimiPenalty cancelled

46'

Salman Al Faraj← Saleh Al Shehri

50'

Rúben Neves

51'

Salem Al Dawsari

69'

Falah Waleed← Ahmed Barman

76'

Mohamed Kanno← Yasir Al Shahrani

90+10'

Bono

90+10'

Khalid Eisa

90+1'

Mohammed Al Burayk← Salem Al Dawsari

90+3'

Mohammed Ali Shaker← A. Romero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-HilalAl

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots7

8Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots7

8On Target2

8Off Target5

1Blocked0

15Inside Box3

2Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

512Total Passes274

398Accurate Passes178

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3