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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Umm Mughad — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
6/1/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Group - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan42%
×Draw30%
Umm Mughad28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.17
Umm Mughad
0.90

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.06
Umm Mughad
1.18

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.61
Umm Mughad
1.27

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Umm Mughad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
72%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Umm Mughad
70%
Draw or Umm Mughad
58%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
18%
Umm Mughad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
69%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
33%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
11%
Umm Mughad 1+ goals
59%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
23%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
60%
Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.06 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
42%
level
30%
Umm Mughad scores more
28%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Port Sudan 2–0 Umm Mughad

Al Hilal Port Sudan beat Umm Mughad 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 1, 2026.