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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Kober — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
1 – 1
Kober
Kober
2/11/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2Jebel Aulia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan45%
×Draw29%
Kober27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.26
Kober
0.90

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 38 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.07
Kober
0.82

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.98
Kober
1.45

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Kober+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Kober →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
73%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Kober
71%
Draw or Kober
55%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
20%
Kober wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
72%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
36%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
13%
Kober 1+ goals
59%
Kober 2+ goals
23%
Kober 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
63%
Kober (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Kober away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.07 + Kober defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kober attack 0.82 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
45%
level
29%
Kober scores more
27%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Kober

Al Hilal Port Sudan and Kober drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 11, 2022.

The match was played at Jebel Aulia Stadium in Jabal Awliya.