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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
2 – 0
Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
6/29/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 22Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan39%
×Draw30%
Hay Al Wadi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.10
Hay Al Wadi
0.94

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.07
Hay Al Wadi
0.90

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.98
Hay Al Wadi
1.13

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Hay Al Wadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
69%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Hay Al Wadi
70%
Draw or Hay Al Wadi
61%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
16%
Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
67%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
30%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
10%
Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
61%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
24%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
56%
Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.07 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.90 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
39%
level
30%
Hay Al Wadi scores more
31%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Hay Al Wadi

Al Hilal Port Sudan beat Hay Al Wadi 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Kober Stadium in Khartoum North.