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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Alamal Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
0 – 3
Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
8/6/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 26Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan41%
×Draw30%
Alamal Atbara30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.16
Alamal Atbara
0.94

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.07
Alamal Atbara
0.90

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.98
Alamal Atbara
1.24

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Alamal Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
70%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Alamal Atbara
70%
Draw or Alamal Atbara
59%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
17%
Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
69%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
32%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
11%
Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
61%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
24%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
58%
Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.07 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
41%
level
30%
Alamal Atbara scores more
30%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Alamal Atbara

Alamal Atbara beat Al Hilal Port Sudan 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.