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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
ABD
13:45
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
6/5/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan39%
×Draw31%
Al Ahli Wad Medani30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.08
Al Ahli Wad Medani
0.90

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.06
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.18

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.61
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.09

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
70%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Al Ahli Wad Medani
69%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
61%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
16%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
66%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
10%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
59%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
23%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
57%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.06 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.18 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
39%
level
31%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
30%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Hilal Port Sudan host Al Ahli Wad Medani

June 5, 2026: Al Hilal Port Sudan take on Al Ahli Wad Medani in Sudani Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.