Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Wad Nubawi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
2 – 0
Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
7/22/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 29Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman68%
×Draw22%
Wad Nubawi11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.80
Wad Nubawi
0.55

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 227% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Wad Nubawi
0.71

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Wad Nubawi
1.07

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Wad Nubawi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
89%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Wad Nubawi
78%
Draw or Wad Nubawi
32%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
40%
Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
83%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
54%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
27%
Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
42%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
11%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
86%
Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Wad Nubawi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.80

Wad Nubawi attack 0.71 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
68%
level
22%
Wad Nubawi scores more
11%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Omdurman 2–0 Wad Nubawi

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Wad Nubawi 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 22, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.