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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Petro de Luanda — CAF Champions League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
2/23/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 5Martyrs of February Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman41%
×Draw31%
Petro de Luanda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.11
Petro de Luanda
0.85

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.08
Petro de Luanda
1.09

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.61
Petro de Luanda
1.15

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
72%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Petro de Luanda
69%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
59%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
17%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
67%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
30%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
10%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
57%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
21%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
60%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.61 · 36 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.08 + Petro de Luanda defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Petro de Luanda attack 1.09 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
41%
level
31%
Petro de Luanda scores more
28%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Al Hilal Omdurman 0–0 Petro de Luanda

Al Hilal Omdurman and Petro de Luanda drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Martyrs of February Stadium in Benghazi.