Al Hilal Omdurman 2–1 Nouakchott King's

Al Hilal Omdurman

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nouakchott King's

5/15/2025

Premier League · Round 28Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman50%

×Draw26%

Nouakchott King's24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal OmdurmanExpected goals in this matchNouakchott King's

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.94

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.48

Nouakchott King's

0.94

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 77 away

1.71

creates per match

1.23

0.64

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.71

Nouakchott King's

1.23

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.64

Nouakchott King's

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Nouakchott King's →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw

76%

Al Hilal Omdurman or Nouakchott King's

74%

Draw or Nouakchott King's

50%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

25%

Nouakchott King's wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

77%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

43%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

19%

Nouakchott King's 1+ goals

61%

Nouakchott King's 2+ goals

24%

Nouakchott King's 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

67%

Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.71 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

50%

level

26%

Nouakchott King's scores more

24%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff