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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Ksar — Premier League 2020

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ksar
Ksar
4/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman56%
×Draw26%
Ksar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.52
Ksar
0.75

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.71
Ksar
0.86

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.64
Ksar
1.33

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Ksar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Ksar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
82%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Ksar
74%
Draw or Ksar
44%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
29%
Ksar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
78%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
45%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
20%
Ksar 1+ goals
53%
Ksar 2+ goals
17%
Ksar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
75%
Ksar (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Ksar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.71 + Ksar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ksar attack 0.86 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
56%
level
26%
Ksar scores more
18%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Hilal Omdurman 1–1 Ksar

Al Hilal Omdurman and Ksar drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.