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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
12/14/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 14Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman68%
×Draw21%
Hilal El-Fasher12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.90
Hilal El-Fasher
0.63

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 202% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Hilal El-Fasher
0.86

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Hilal El-Fasher
1.26

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
88%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Hilal El-Fasher
79%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
32%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
41%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
85%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
56%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
29%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
47%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
13%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
85%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hilal El-Fasher attack 0.86 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
68%
level
21%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
12%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Hilal El-Fasher

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Hilal El-Fasher 4-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 14, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.