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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Haidob En Nahud — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
12/10/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 13Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman64%
×Draw22%
Haidob En Nahud14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.83
Haidob En Nahud
0.70

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 161% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 24 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Haidob En Nahud
1.00

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Haidob En Nahud
1.13

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Haidob En Nahud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
86%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Haidob En Nahud
78%
Draw or Haidob En Nahud
36%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
38%
Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
84%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
54%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
28%
Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
50%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
16%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
82%
Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.00 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
64%
level
22%
Haidob En Nahud scores more
14%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Haidob En Nahud

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Haidob En Nahud 3-2 in Sudani Premier League on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.