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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
3 – 0
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
11/3/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman77%
×Draw16%
Al Rabta Kosti7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.20
Al Rabta Kosti
0.48

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 358% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 52 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Al Rabta Kosti
0.56

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Al Rabta Kosti
1.87

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
93%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Rabta Kosti
84%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
23%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
52%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
89%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
64%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
37%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
38%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
8%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
92%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.20

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.56 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
77%
level
16%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
7%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Omdurman 3–0 Al Rabta Kosti

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Rabta Kosti 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on November 3, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.