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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Merreikh El Obeid — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
5 – 0
Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Merreikh El Obeid
7/19/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Round - 6Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman72%
×Draw19%
Al Merreikh El Obeid10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.10
Al Merreikh El Obeid
0.62

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 239% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.33
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.07

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.17
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.87

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Merreikh El Obeid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
90%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Merreikh El Obeid
81%
Draw or Al Merreikh El Obeid
28%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
47%
Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
88%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
62%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
35%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals
46%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals
13%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
88%
Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.33 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.10

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.07 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
72%
level
19%
Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more
10%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Merreikh El Obeid

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Merreikh El Obeid 5-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Gadarf Stadium in Al-Gadarf.