Al Hilal Omdurman 2–0 Al-Mergheni: Result & Stats

Al Hilal Omdurman

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al-Mergheni

7/4/2025

Sudani Premier League · Championship Round - 1Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman66%

×Draw23%

Al-Mergheni11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal OmdurmanExpected goals in this matchAl-Mergheni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.53

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.68

Al-Mergheni

0.53

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 217% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

2.20

creates per match

0.85

0.20

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

2.20

Al-Mergheni

0.85

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.20

Al-Mergheni

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Al-Mergheni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al-Mergheni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw

89%

Al Hilal Omdurman or Al-Mergheni

77%

Draw or Al-Mergheni

34%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

38%

Al-Mergheni wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

81%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

50%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

24%

Al-Mergheni 1+ goals

41%

Al-Mergheni 2+ goals

10%

Al-Mergheni 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

85%

Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Al-Mergheni away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.20 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.68

Al-Mergheni attack 0.85 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

66%

level

23%

Al-Mergheni scores more

11%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff