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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
CANC
12:00
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
5/7/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 21Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman73%
×Draw19%
Al Fallah8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.94
Al Fallah
0.47

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 313% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Al Fallah
0.55

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Al Fallah
1.35

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
92%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Fallah
81%
Draw or Al Fallah
27%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
46%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
86%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
58%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
30%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
37%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
8%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
90%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al Fallah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al Fallah attack 0.55 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
73%
level
19%
Al Fallah scores more
8%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Hilal Omdurman host Al Fallah

May 7, 2023: Al Hilal Omdurman take on Al Fallah in Sudani Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Al Hilal Omdurman host Al Fallah at Al-Hilal Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.