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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
CANC
12:00
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
4/19/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 25Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman71%
×Draw20%
Al-Ahly Merowe9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.94
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.54

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 259% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
91%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al-Ahly Merowe
80%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
29%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
44%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
86%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
58%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
30%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
42%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
10%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
88%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
71%
level
20%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
9%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Match Preview

Al Hilal Omdurman face Al-Ahly Merowe on April 19, 2023 in this Sudani Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Al Hilal Omdurman host Al-Ahly Merowe at Al-Hilal Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.