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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
3 – 0
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
2/8/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman68%
×Draw21%
Al Ahli Khartoum11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.84
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.56

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 229% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.73

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
89%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Ahli Khartoum
79%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
32%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
41%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
84%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
55%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
28%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
43%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
11%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
87%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.84

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
68%
level
21%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
11%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Ahli Khartoum

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Ahli Khartoum 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 8, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.