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Al-Hilal Omdurman II vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
6/5/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Group - 6Al Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al-Hilal Omdurman II48%
×Draw28%
Hilal El-Fasher24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1.36
Hilal El-Fasher
0.86

Al-Hilal Omdurman II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1.90
Hilal El-Fasher
1.22

allows per match

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
0.50
Hilal El-Fasher
0.83

finishing

Al-Hilal Omdurman II+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Omdurman II ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Omdurman II or draw
76%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II or Hilal El-Fasher
72%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
52%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Omdurman II wins by 2+
23%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Omdurman II 1+ goals
74%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 2+ goals
39%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 3+ goals
16%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
58%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
21%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Omdurman II (draw refunded)
67%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Omdurman II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Omdurman II attack 1.90 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.22 + Al-Hilal Omdurman II defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Hilal Omdurman II scores more
48%
level
28%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
24%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Hilal Omdurman II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Hilal Omdurman II vs Hilal El-Fasher

Al-Hilal Omdurman II beat Hilal El-Fasher 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 5, 2026.

The match was played at Al Hilal Stadium in Omdurman.