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Al-Hilal Omdurman II vs Al Taqadom — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Al Taqadom
Al Taqadom
2/15/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 11Al Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Hilal Omdurman II58%
×Draw22%
Al Taqadom20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1.95
Al Taqadom
1.05

Al-Hilal Omdurman II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1.90
Al Taqadom
1.60

allows per match

Al-Hilal Omdurman II
0.50
Al Taqadom
2.00

finishing

Al-Hilal Omdurman II+0.00on par
Al Taqadom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Omdurman II ↓

Al Taqadom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Omdurman II or draw
80%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II or Al Taqadom
78%
Draw or Al Taqadom
42%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Omdurman II wins by 2+
34%
Al Taqadom wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Omdurman II 1+ goals
86%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 2+ goals
58%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 3+ goals
31%
Al Taqadom 1+ goals
65%
Al Taqadom 2+ goals
28%
Al Taqadom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Omdurman II (draw refunded)
74%
Al Taqadom (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Omdurman II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Al Taqadom away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Omdurman II attack 1.90 + Al Taqadom defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Al Taqadom attack 1.60 + Al-Hilal Omdurman II defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al-Hilal Omdurman II scores more
58%
level
22%
Al Taqadom scores more
20%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al-Hilal Omdurman II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Hilal Omdurman II vs Al Taqadom

Al-Hilal Omdurman II beat Al Taqadom 4-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Al Hilal Stadium in Omdurman.