Al Hilal Manaqil 0–1 Al Ahli Wad Medani

Al Hilal Manaqil

FT

0 – 1

Al Ahli Wad Medani

2/5/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Hilal Manaqil37%

×Draw31%

Al Ahli Wad Medani32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal ManaqilExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Wad Medani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.96

Al Hilal Manaqil

1.04

Al Ahli Wad Medani

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

1.18

0.75

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Al Hilal Manaqil

1.00

Al Ahli Wad Medani

1.18

allows per match

Al Hilal Manaqil

0.75

Al Ahli Wad Medani

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Manaqil+0.00on par

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Manaqil ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Hilal Manaqil or draw

68%

Al Hilal Manaqil or Al Ahli Wad Medani

69%

Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani

63%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Manaqil wins by 2+

14%

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Hilal Manaqil 1+ goals

65%

Al Hilal Manaqil 2+ goals

28%

Al Hilal Manaqil 3+ goals

9%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals

62%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals

25%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Manaqil (draw refunded)

53%

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Manaqil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Manaqil attack 1.00 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.18 + Al Hilal Manaqil defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Hilal Manaqil scores more

37%

level

31%

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more

32%

Al Hilal Manaqil at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Hilal Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff