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Al Hilal Karima vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Karima
Al Hilal Karima
FT
2 – 2
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
1/26/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Hilal Karima40%
×Draw26%
Al-Ahly Merowe34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Karima
1.38
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.25

Al Hilal Karima creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Karima
1.40
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Hilal Karima
1.80
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Hilal Karima+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Karima ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Hilal Karima or draw
66%
Al Hilal Karima or Al-Ahly Merowe
74%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
60%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Karima wins by 2+
19%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Hilal Karima 1+ goals
75%
Al Hilal Karima 2+ goals
40%
Al Hilal Karima 3+ goals
16%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
71%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
36%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Karima (draw refunded)
54%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Karima at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Karima attack 1.40 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Hilal Karima defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Hilal Karima scores more
40%
level
26%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
34%

Al Hilal Karima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Hilal Karima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Karima 2–2 Al-Ahly Merowe

Al Hilal Karima and Al-Ahly Merowe drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on January 26, 2026.