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Al Hilal Kadougli vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
FT
2 – 1
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
10/18/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 34Family Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Hilal Kadougli42%
×Draw30%
Al-Ahly Merowe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Kadougli
1.15
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.89

Al Hilal Kadougli creates 29% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Kadougli
0.95
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Hilal Kadougli
1.07
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Kadougli ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Kadougli or draw
72%
Al Hilal Kadougli or Al-Ahly Merowe
70%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
58%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
18%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
68%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
32%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
11%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
59%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
22%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
60%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Kadougli at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.95 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
42%
level
30%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
28%

Al Hilal Kadougli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Hilal Kadougli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Kadougli vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al Hilal Kadougli beat Al-Ahly Merowe 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Family Club Stadium in Khartoum.