Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Hilal Al Manaqil vs Wad Nubawi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
CANC
13:00
Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
1/11/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Hilal Al Manaqil37%
×Draw33%
Wad Nubawi30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
0.96
Wad Nubawi
0.83

Al Hilal Al Manaqil creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.25
Wad Nubawi
0.67

allows per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.00
Wad Nubawi
0.67

finishing

Al Hilal Al Manaqil+0.00on par
Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Al Manaqil ↓

Wad Nubawi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Hilal Al Manaqil or draw
70%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil or Wad Nubawi
67%
Draw or Wad Nubawi
63%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Al Manaqil wins by 2+
14%
Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 1+ goals
62%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 2+ goals
25%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 3+ goals
7%
Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
56%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
20%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Al Manaqil (draw refunded)
55%
Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Al Manaqil at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil attack 1.25 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Wad Nubawi attack 0.67 + Al Hilal Al Manaqil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Hilal Al Manaqil scores more
37%
level
33%
Wad Nubawi scores more
30%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Hilal Al Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Hilal Al Manaqil face Wad Nubawi (Sudani Premier League)

Sudani Premier League returns with Al Hilal Al Manaqil hosting Wad Nubawi. Match starts January 11, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Al Hilal Al Manaqil host Wad Nubawi at Al-Gadarf Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.