Al Hilal Al Manaqil vs Hay Al Arab — Sudani Premier League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Al Hilal Al Manaqil45%
Hay Al Arab25%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Hilal Al Manaqil creates 47% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Hilal Al Manaqil ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Hilal Al Manaqil at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Hilal Al Manaqil attack 1.25 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18
Hay Al Arab attack 0.60 + Al Hilal Al Manaqil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Al Hilal Al Manaqil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Al Hilal Al Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Merreikh II
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Hay Al Wadi
Umm Mughad
Hilal El-Fasher
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Alamal Atbara
Haidob En Nahud
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Manaqil
Al Shorta
Al-Mergheni
Al Fallah
Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Merreikh
Al Fajr
Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Taqadom
Al Hilal Karima
Al Rabta Kosti
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al Ahli Khartoum
Merreikh Kosti
KoberIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al Hilal Al Manaqil host Hay Al Arab on Wednesday, 15 January 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Sudani Premier League 2025/2026 season.
Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Al Manaqil 4–0 Hay Al Arab
Al Hilal Al Manaqil beat Hay Al Arab 4-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 15, 2025.
The match was played at Al-Gadarf Stadium in Al-Gadarf.