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Al Hilal Al Manaqil vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
2/15/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Hilal Al Manaqil34%
×Draw30%
Al Shorta36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.04
Al Shorta
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.25
Al Shorta
1.17

allows per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.00
Al Shorta
0.83

finishing

Al Hilal Al Manaqil+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Al Manaqil ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Al Manaqil or draw
64%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil or Al Shorta
70%
Draw or Al Shorta
66%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Al Manaqil wins by 2+
13%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 1+ goals
65%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 2+ goals
28%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 3+ goals
9%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
66%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
29%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Al Manaqil (draw refunded)
49%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Al Manaqil at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil attack 1.25 + Al Shorta defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Shorta attack 1.17 + Al Hilal Al Manaqil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Hilal Al Manaqil scores more
34%
level
30%
Al Shorta scores more
36%

Al Shorta at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Al Manaqil 1–3 Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Al Hilal Al Manaqil 3-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Gadarf Stadium in Al-Gadarf.